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Mongolia H2 2026 Outlook: Oyu Tolgoi Leverage and Mining Reform Risks
H2 2026 Mongolia Outlook: Expert analysis on Prime Minister Uchral's economic liberation agenda, fiscal risks, and the Oyu Tolgoi negotiations.
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Economy and Mining
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Mongolia's 2027 Coal Exports to China Will Be About Volume, Not Price
Mongolia coal exports head for 120 million tonnes in 2027 as a new rail link to China cuts transport costs to USD 8 a tonne. The boom is volume, not price.
3 days ago
Oyu Tolgoi Dividend Poll To Rewrite the Wealth Fund Law
Mongolia is polling the public on how to spend a 3 trillion tugrik Oyu Tolgoi dividend it has not received yet. The poll's real job is rewriting the wealth fund law.
4 days ago
Mongolia Budget Breaks the Fiscal Rules. Parliament Rewrites Them.
Mongolia budget spends 19.4% over parliament's ceiling. Auditors object, parliament rewrites the rules, inflation takes back November's rises.
Oct 7
Mongolia Eyes $5.5B Foreign Investment with 30-Day Complaint Guarantee
Mongolia guarantees 30-day complaint resolutions to attract $5.5B in foreign investment, but political friction and past reforms test its credibility.
Oct 6
Mongolia Chooses Gobi Renewables to Power Oyu Tolgoi Mine
Mongolia awards Gobi Renewables auction to power Oyu Tolgoi mine, shifting Chinese energy imports. Will it solve true energy sovereignty?
Oct 5
Rio Tinto and Mongolia Revise Oyu Tolgoi Terms, Targeting First Dividends in 2027
Rio Tinto and Mongolia revise Oyu Tolgoi terms, cutting financing rates to SOFR plus 4% and targeting government dividend payouts starting in 2027.
Sep 29
Mongolia Taps BlackRock to Drive State-Owned Enterprise Privatization
Mongolia partners with BlackRock to reform its $16.8B state-owned enterprise sector. Can market discipline overcome political control in Ulaanbaatar’s SOE reforms?
Sep 23
Why Mongolia’s Economy Is Growing Faster Than Its Tax Base
Mongolia’s economy grows 7.6% but masks a $608M budget deficit. Discover why booming mining exports fail to cover government spending costs and what lies ahead.
Sep 22
Mongolian Prime Minister Uchral Turns Oyu Tolgoi Dividends Into a 2027 Budget Pillar
Mongolia’s 2027 budget hinges on Oyu Tolgoi and mining sector dividends. Can PM Uchral balance tax relief, wage hikes, and mining revenue risks?
Sep 15
Mongolia Green Ambitions at UNCCD COP17 Face Economic and Rangeland Challenges
Mongolia hosts UNCCD COP17 to fight land degradation, but bad economic incentives and heavy overgrazing threaten its green goals.
Aug 24
Spot the Opportunities. Navigate the Risks
Independent analysis of Mongolia's politics, economy and geopolitics risks. The essential weekly briefing for investors, policymakers, diplomats and anyone who needs to understand where Mongolia is heading.
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