Mongolia Teacher Strike and Pension Protests Test Government Amid Budget Crunch

Mongolia’s parliament opened its autumn session with a familiar ritual: a debate over the budget. What sets this year apart is the noise outside the chamber.

Teachers are threatening a nationwide strike, pensioners are staging protests, and talk of hunger strikes is circulating on Ulaanbaatar’s main square.

A technical budget argument is morphing into a test of political authority.

Teachers’ unions have set September 28 as the date for a walkout. They demand their minimum pay rise to 3.5 million tugriks (USD 970), more than double the current average of 1.4 million.

They also cite ballooning class sizes, often reaching 60 or 70 pupils, which undermine the government’s self-declared “education support year.”

The budget doubles overall education spending but leaves salaries untouched. That contradiction is now being exposed by organized labor. Meeting teachers’ demands would require billions in new allocations. Even partial concessions would widen the deficit or force cuts elsewhere. With coal revenues falling, the fiscal room is narrowing.

Sympathy for Mongolia teacher strike among parents and the wider public will make it politically costly for the government to stall. A successful strike could embolden doctors, nurses, and civil servants, multiplying the demands.

Elders add another layer of discontent. They pressed for a minimum pension of 1.5 million tugriks (USD 417). The labor minister flatly refused, noting that 93% of retirees would qualify, producing a bill of 4.1 trillion tugriks (USD 1.14 billion) with no funding source. The government instead offered a modest 6% increase.

Some pensioners are now threatening hunger strikes. This is not only about money but dignity, and dismissive responses risk inflaming sentiment further.

Speaker Amarbayasgalan has seized the moment, emphasizing health and education in his address. His timing, coinciding with teachers’ mobilization, looks less like coincidence than a calculated move to cast himself as champion of the public sector in his contest with the prime minister for party leadership. If the strikes drag on, his alignment with teachers could pay political dividends.

Overlaying these pressures is a less visible but potentially explosive risk. The London Court of International Arbitration has begun reviewing Mongolia’s tax dispute with Rio Tinto.

At stake is roughly one trillion tugriks (USD 278 million) stemming from a tax prepayment already spent as pandemic-era cash handouts. According to the finance minister, a loss at the court is the worst case scenario. It would land just as the government faces strikes and pension protests. This episode highlights how vulnerable the budget is to sudden shocks.

The bigger danger is cumulative. Budget debates in Ulaanbaatar often revolve around abstract targets for deficits and growth. This year they intersect with tangible grievances.

Teachers are pointing to overcrowded classrooms they pay to supply. Pensioners are pointing to food prices outpacing their meager stipends. Neither constituency is likely to be placated with promises.

The government faces a choice between risking fiscal discipline by conceding to wage and pension demands or risking social disruption by refusing them. The Rio Tinto arbitration is a reminder that fiscal risks do not come one at a time. They compound. And if leaders misjudge, the budget will not just be debated in parliament. It will be contested in the streets.