Mongolia's 2026 Outlook: Resource Policy, Political Risk and Energy Security
- Amar Adiya
- Jan 5
- 2 min read
Mongolia confronts a pivotal 2026, balancing institutional shifts, evolving resource policies, and a tense political landscape. The nation must weigh resource sovereignty against economic pragmatism amid social and energy vulnerabilities.
Internal divisions within the ruling party have eased, but power now concentrates in a more assertive presidency.
This shift, coupled with greater reliance on courts for elite disputes, risks slowing government decisions and complicating structural reforms as commodity markets tighten.
Ulaanbaatar is moving away from equity-heavy resource agreements, like the Oyu Tolgoi model, towards royalty-based arrangements, exemplified by a recent Orano deal. If effective in 2026, this approach could unlock stalled gold and rare earth projects, channeling stable revenue into the National Wealth Fund.
Crucial negotiations with Rio Tinto over Oyu Tolgoi’s interest rates and tax treatment will signal Ulaanbaatar's commitment to commercial realism. Resolving licensing and valuation for the mine's underground expansion tests Mongolia’s balance of resource sovereignty and existing contracts. Reviews of "strategic deposit" licenses remain a concern for investors.
Mongolia's political landscape is reshaping, led by Prime Minister Gombojavyn Zandanshatar and a new generation eyeing 2027 presidential and 2028 parliamentary elections.
Parliament Speaker and MPP's chairman Nyam-Osoryn Uchral, ineligible for the presidency, remains a key future prime ministerial figure.
Narrowing fiscal space and public impatience will likely trigger a cabinet reshuffle early in 2026. Anti-corruption probes will intensify as rival factions seek advantage.
Mongolia's 2026 budget rests on optimistic revenue projections. An amendment is probable in the first half to align planned wage hikes, pension increases, and phased tax cuts with economic realities.
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