Mongolian Teachers Strike Over Pay, Testing Government’s Fiscal Limits

Mongolia’s budget fight has turned into a duel between economic sense and political survival. After the court reinstated Prime Minister Gombojavyn Zandanshatar following an unconstitutional no-confidence vote, lawmakers reopened debate on sweeping salary and pension hikes that could push public finances to the edge.

Teachers are on strike at the main square in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia (unuudur.mn)

Parliament is racing through the 2026 budget, which must clear five rounds by November 15. Family, Labor and Social Protection Minister Aubakir says the proposed raises alone will cost ₮830 billion (~$231 million) now missing from state coffers.

Political logic, not arithmetic, drives the debate. With the 2027 elections already looming, no party wants to be seen denying teachers or pensioners a raise.

Cabinet Chief Secretary Byambatsogt says the government will fund the increases by monetizing the Borteeg coal deposit under the Tavan Tolgoi group and cutting other spending. That may buy time but not solvency.

Economy Minister Uchral meanwhile confirmed a downgrade to the 2026 revenue forecast, citing weak global commodity prices. The ministry plans to shrink the revenue-to-GDP ratio from 37% to 30.6%, implying less state involvement but also less cushion against fiscal shocks.

Meanwhile, the Budget Stability Council warned these changes could violate the fiscal stability law’s 2% GDP base balance rule and even clash with the Constitution. The bill now returns to committee, though few expect real restraint.

Economist Davaadorj, an adviser to the Deputy Speaker and a member of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, warns that unfunded pay rises would fuel inflation, weaken the tugrik, and swell public debt. History supports him. Pre-election splurgehas left Mongolia more indebted and more dependent on temporary windfalls.

For Zandanshatar, the raises are political insurance. The government is eager to calm a restive public sector strained by inflation and eroded real wages. The administration presents the gradual pay increase as a stabilizing measure.

Teachers, however, are not satisfied. Their union rejected the government’s phased plan for a 20% raise in January 2026 and another 10% in July. They want an immediate flat salary of ₮3.5 million (almost $1,000) per month.

Mongolian teachers strike has continued since October 16 and has won broad sympathy with over 30,000 participants from 558 education institutions. Many Mongolians note the absurdity that city street cleaners now earn more ($1000) than university-trained teachers.

This standoff exposes a decade of neglect. The government’s plan to cut elsewhere to fund raises offers no structural fix. Without aligning pay to productivity and stable revenues, every concession seeds the next crisis.

The teachers’ strike has stripped abstraction from the budget debate. It reveals a society tired of slogans and quick fixes. Without reform, Mongolia’s fiscal cycle will keep repeating itself—louder, costlier, and closer to breaking point.