Can Mongolia’s Prime Minister Keep His Political Magic?

Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene seems poised for political endurance. The economy is ticking along, and he’s managed a coalition of competing interests within the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) and beyond. His cabinet enjoys strong support from the president.

The timing should be ideal for Oyun-Erdene to push Mongolia into a more prosperous era, and he is on track to become one of the longest-serving PMs in modern Mongolia's history. But the reality is more complicated.

Oyun-Erdene’s plans face serious obstacles, not least from his own 2025 budget, which was passed last week with a December revision in sight. Packed with ambitious, costly projects, the budget has triggered a political firestorm.

Critics argue that it prioritizes flashy, large-scale ventures over essential investments in healthcare, education, and—perhaps most urgently—energy.

Mongolia’s energy sector, already plagued by underinvestment, still covers only 80% of the country’s power needs. A few big-ticket projects, without serious structural investment, won’t change that overnight.

The coalition politics that Oyun-Erdene relies on to stay in power is no smooth ride either. His party's alliance with the Democratic Party (DP) and HUN party may offer political clout, but it also means constant compromise.

If Oyun-Erdene is to hold on to his position and build real momentum, he’ll need to navigate these internal party dynamics carefully. Following the October local elections, some within the DP are angling for leadership change, adding to the challenge.

A cabinet reshuffle might seem like a straightforward move, but in Mongolia, it’s a gamble. While it could rejuvenate the administration and deflect public criticism, it also risks giving off a whiff of instability. If he does proceed with a reshuffle, Oyun-Erdene will have to choose replacements wisely, balancing party and personal loyalties with public expectations of a government that actually delivers.

Then there’s the issue of governance bloat. Oyun-Erdene’s idea of bringing back vice ministers—a move many see as a thinly veiled way to extend political influence—has already raised eyebrows. Critics argue that, in an already overstretched budget, reviving these positions would be fiscal folly, undermining the government’s claims of efficiency.

Meanwhile, a petition challenging his appointment has landed in the Constitutional Court, stirring up more uncertainty. While the case itself may not unseat him, any ruling here could reshape Mongolia’s rules for appointing future leaders. It’s a layer of complexity Oyun-Erdene probably doesn’t want, but it could ultimately add much-needed clarity to Mongolia’s political process.

Looking ahead, the upcoming MPP convention to review the government performance in 100 days is a key moment. Here, Oyun-Erdene will need to rally his base and reinforce his leadership. But with his ambitious budget under fire and coalition partners restless, he may find his support thinner than expected.  

Oyun-Erdene’s budget headache and coalition wrangling won’t necessarily spell disaster, but they do complicate his path to a long political career.

He’s a resilient leader, no doubt, but navigating these obstacles will demand finesse, and a misstep could be costly.