Border Drills Reshape Mongolia's Defense

by Abdul Rafay Afzal

Mongolia recently joined Russia and China in 'Border Defense 2025,' its first-ever tripartite military exercise along the Manzhouli frontier. This was no mere diplomatic handshake. For the first time, all three nations deployed forces for coordinated defense, encompassing joint reconnaissance, drone surveillance, and antiterrorism drills.

Presidents of China, Russia and Mongolia (Montsame.mn)

This raises a critical question for Ulaanbaatar: Does this strategic cooperation enhance national sovereignty and defense, or does it subtly shift Mongolia's carefully balanced diplomatic posture?

The exercise was by all accounts a success. A more pressing question for Ulaanbaatar is what it means for national sovereignty, defense posture, and its fragile diplomatic balancing act.

Mongolia is sandwiched between two of the world's greatest military powers. Its 4,630-kilometer border with China and 3,452-kilometer boundary with Russia are vast. These frontiers stretch across sparsely populated steppe, desert, and taiga, where government presence is thin, making them vulnerable to smuggling, trafficking, and other illicit cross-border flows. In this sense, cooperation on border security is not a luxury. It is essential.

The drill was designed to provide the Mongolian Armed Forces an opportunity to familiarize with cutting-edge surveillance technology, drones, and joint coordination of forces. It offered a glimpse into 21st-century border defense. Technically and tactically, this marks a victory.

Border security does not exist in a vacuum. It intertwines with geopolitics, perceptions, and diplomatic messaging. Ulaanbaatar's foreign policy has long emphasized neutrality, often termed the 'third neighbor' policy. This involves friendly relations with China and Russia, counterbalanced by outreach to the U.S., Japan, South Korea, and the EU. Mongolia also conducts peacekeeping under the UN banner and hosts dialogues.

The drill followed a trilateral meeting among leaders from China, Russia, and Mongoliaon September 2. It also arrived as Russia-China military ties deepen, great power tensions escalate, and 'security blocs' gain prominence.

While framed as regional cooperation, these drills risk subtly drawing Ulaanbaatar further into a Sino-Russian security orbit, reminiscent of past pressures on Mongolia's autonomy, even as Beijing and Moscow gain a potent symbol of unity. If Mongolia is perceived, fairly or unfairly, to be slipping closer to a Sino-Russian security orbit, this could complicate relations with its 'third neighbors' regarding defense cooperation, assistance, and investment.

The optics draw Mongolia into a Sino-Russian orbit, despite Ulaanbaatar's claims of neutrality. This concern holds some merit; geopolitical appearances often matter as much as reality. Yet, the exercise focused on specific technical cooperation and preserving national command. It signaled practical border management, not a deeper military alignment. Mongolia is not joining a military alliance. The exercise preserved national command over forces, focusing on domestic operations.

If future drills expand to incorporate joint command structures, or introduce Chinese or Russian troops onto Mongolian soil, this could trigger constitutional, political, and diplomatic alarms.

Ulaanbaatar should continue to communicate clearly and consistently: its determination to remain neutral and sovereign. Defense cooperation with neighbors is a realistic need, not a concession of 'third neighbor' ties.

While exercises with Russia and China offer benefits, Mongolia also needs multilateral peacekeeping, humanitarian operations, and training exercises with other partners such as the U.S. and Japan. Diverse cooperation offers the best defense against dependence.

Mongolia’s defense budget rose in 2023 to about US$147.8 million, a 37.5% increasefrom 2022. This spending amounts to roughly 0.60% of GDP, modest compared to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan which spend roughly 1.5% and 1.0% of GDP respectively. A focus on cost-effective technologies—drones, radar, mobile units—training, and infrastructure is essential to bolster domestic border protection without external dependence.

The exercise was successful. It also sends a message, intended or not, about Mongolia’s changing place in the regional security framework. Ulaanbaatar should not fear cooperation, nor should it stumble into alignment. Amid shifting global power and changing regional dynamics, Mongolia must tread cautiously: pragmatically, sovereignly, and strategically.

About the author: Abdul Rafay Afzal is a journalist and lawyer. He writes on global affairs and edits The Advocate Post.