Why Mongolia’s Record Mining Wealth is Leaving Households Behind

On paper, Mongolia looks resilient. In 2025 it absorbed a collapse in coking coal prices by riding record copper and gold exports. Economic growth in 2025 was 6.8 percent. Foreign reserves hover around 7 billion dollars. A new sovereign bond was sold to market. From a distance, the landing appears successful.

Ulaanbaatar

Up close, the composition of that growth tells a narrower story. Mining still generates roughly a quarter of GDP, more than 90 percent of exports, and the bulk of fiscal revenue. One buyer, China, dominates demand. That concentration would be manageable if households were sharing the upside. They are not.

Real wages have trailed inflation for much of the post pandemic period. Consumer prices linger near 9 percent, driven by food and imported goods. A weaker tugrik passes quickly into supermarket shelves in an economy that imports most of what it consumes.

Meat, milk, flour, vegetables, and fuel absorb a growing share of paychecks. Household credit has expanded faster than incomes, turning consumption into a debt financed buffer. The state balance sheet swells while urban households endure what feels like a quiet recession.

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