By Zhamsrangin Sambu
Mongolia’s strategic position, between two geopolitical giants—China and Russia—has long made it a fascinating subject of international interest. However, its historical and spiritual ties to Tibetan Buddhism place it in an even more complex situation, particularly as succession of the next Dalai Lama approaches. With its economic ties to China, growing engagement with India, and cultural connections to Tibet, Mongolia now finds itself at a crucial juncture where religious, economic, and geopolitical interests intersect.
Mongolia is not simply a passive observer in the Dalai Lama’s succession but an active participant by default. The recent recognition of the 10th Jebtsundamba Khutuktu—a spiritual leader who holds dual citizenship in Mongolia and the U.S.—illustrates Mongolia’s commitment to preserving its deep-rooted spiritual heritage.
This recognition, while undoubtedly religious, is also a clear assertion of Mongolia’s autonomy in its spiritual decisions, signaling its resistance to external pressures, particularly from China, which seeks to control Tibetan Buddhism’s future.
Historically, Mongolia has resisted external interference in its religious institutions, maintaining ties to Tibetan Buddhism despite external pressures, such as during the Soviet era. This long-standing stance continues as Mongolia navigates the complexities of its spiritual and geopolitical landscape.
India’s increasing presence in Mongolia is more than just economic. The $1.2 billion investment in an oil refinery is part of India’s broader “Act East” policy, which aims to counterbalance China’s economic dominance in the region. While this economic support is crucial for Mongolia’s energy security, it also intersects with India’s strategic interest in Tibetan Buddhism.
By supporting the Dalai Lama’s religious authority, India positions itself as a counterpoint to China’s growing influence over Tibetan Buddhism. India’s role in promoting Tibetan Buddhism, particularly through Dharamshala, aligns with its broader foreign policy goals to increase influence in Central Asia and reduce China’s geopolitical sway. However, this soft power strategy raises questions about whether India’s engagement in Mongolia is purely economic or subtly entwined with religious diplomacy aimed at weakening China’s grip over Tibetan Buddhism.
China’s economic dominance in Mongolia, facilitated through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), gives it significant leverage. Yet, economic power alone does not explain Beijing’s approach to Tibetan Buddhism. The introduction of Order Number Five, which mandates Chinese state approval for the reincarnation of Tibetan Buddhist leaders, underscores China’s intent to control not just the economic but also the spiritual future of the Tibetan Buddhist community.
For China, the Dalai Lama’s succession is not just a religious issue—it’s a national security concern and a strategic opportunity to exert cultural and political influence over Mongolia. By attempting to assert control over Tibetan Buddhism, Beijing hopes to extend its reach into Mongolia’s spiritual institutions, thereby consolidating its influence over the country’s religious and cultural identity.
Mongolia’s leadership is caught between two powerful forces: the economic and political pull of China and the spiritual and strategic support offered by India. While Mongolia’s ties to Tibetan Buddhism are crucial to its cultural identity, its economic reliance on China makes it highly sensitive to Beijing’s demands. This delicate balancing act is even more complicated by Mongolia’s growing ties with the United States, which has increasingly engaged with Ulaanbaatar in recent years, potentially providing an additional counterweight to Chinese influence.
Mongolia’s challenge is to preserve its religious and cultural heritage while ensuring its economic survival. The decision to recognize the 10th Jebtsundamba Khutuktu, despite potential Chinese opposition, highlights Mongolia’s determination to maintain its spiritual independence. This stance not only reflects Mongolia’s desire to preserve its religious traditions but also signals its intent to navigate a path that protects its sovereignty.
The finding of the next Dalai Lama is more than a transition of spiritual authority; it is a moment of critical geopolitical significance. For Mongolia, how it handles this transition will have far-reaching implications. Its decision or non-decision will shape not just its own future but could influence the broader balance of power in Asia.
The involvement of external actors—India, China, the U.S., and even Russia—complicates the picture. While the U.S. has not explicitly intervened in Mongolia’s religious matters, its growing relationship with Ulaanbaatar suggests that it may be indirectly influencing outcomes. Similarly, Russia’s historical ties to Mongolia add another layer of complexity to the situation.
Mongolia’s ability to maintain its cultural identity while managing economic dependencies and navigating the competing influences of China and India will set a precedent for other small nations facing similar pressures from great powers. The stakes are particularly high for Mongolia, and its choices in the coming years will have lasting consequences for its role in the region and beyond.
Mongolia’s path forward is one of careful diplomacy and strategic maneuvering. As it faces growing pressures from China and India, it must balance its economic needs with its cultural and spiritual identity. The recognition of the 10th Jebtsundamba Khutuktu is just one example of Mongolia’s determination to assert its religious and cultural autonomy in an increasingly polarized geopolitical environment. How Mongolia handles the Dalai Lama’s succession—and the competing interests of regional powers—will determine its future as a sovereign and independent actor in the heart of Asia.
Zhamsrangin Sambu is a freelance writer based in Seoul.
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