Mongolia’s Tugrik Tumbles: Can Fiscal Discipline Halt Inflation?

Mongolia’s economy stands at a precarious crossroads. Headline GDP growth remains robust, but beneath the surface, inflation is accelerating and the Tugrik is weakening at a rapid pace. A temporary lift in export earnings has done little to mask deepening structural and fiscal vulnerabilities that demand urgent policy action.

Inflation remains entrenched above 9%, far from the Bank of Mongolia’s 5% ±2 percentage point target by 2027.

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