Amar Adiya
Feb 20
Mongolia stands at a critical juncture as it heads into parliamentary elections on June 28, 2024. The dominance of the ruling Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) faces a serious challenge. While the MPP is still likely to retain power, gone are the days of lopsided landslide victories that granted them unrestrained control. The MPP’s narrowing popularity opens the door for opposition parties and reformist voices to shake up the status quo.
Several factors explain the MPP’s decline. Despite a booming economy driven by coal exports to China, ordinary Mongolians feel left behind. Corruption remains a top voter concern, with numerous scandals involving MPP politicians lining their pockets through shady deals.
Voters are outraged by the widening gap between the wealthy elites and the poor majority. They want accountability and penalties for high-level corruption among the political and business classes.
Also, the new proportional representation system favors smaller parties, enabling them to gain a foothold. With 48 of 126 parliamentary seats allocated based on party vote share nationwide, even fringe parties could become kingmakers. Already, opposition forces are coalescing into alliances, sensing an opening to break the MPP and Democratic Party duopoly.
Should the MPP secure only a narrow victory, expect sweeping leadership change. PM Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene will likely be replaced by Amarbayasgalan, despite the latter’s own corruption allegations. Yet with a weak mandate, the new PM will be vulnerable to populist forces fed up with the status quo.
Having served as the MPP secretary general and later as Cabinet Secretary, he is well-versed in government operations. Backed by President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh and aligned with the MPP's leadership transition plan, Amarbayasgalan's adept leadership and ability to navigate party factions bolster his candidacy.
While PM Oyun-Erdene has led Mongolia from COVID downturn to economic growth, his tenure has been marred by corruption scandals. His likely successor, Amarbayasgalan, provides continuity but with heavy baggage. For the opposition, DP's Gantumur offers a clean break, though the DP remains plagued by infighting. In the DP, President Battulga continues to play a significant role.
Beyond the major parties, figures like former labor minister Nomtoibayar and his new “National Alliance” bear watching, as fringe populists could play kingmaker roles in case neither MPP nor DP wins majority. Meanwhile, President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh still holds sway over the MPP and overall political landscape from the top.
The big issues for voters include not just corruption, but also wealth inequality, urban-rural divides, and economic diversification. People want a fairer distribution of mining wealth along with reforms to education, healthcare and the environment. Voters are also concerned with Ulaanbaatar's crippling air pollution and traffic congestion, with the government seen as missing solutions. Furthermore, Mongolia's relations with China, Russia and the western nations remain delicate balancing acts, impacting views on foreign investment and nationalism.
As public frustration reaches new heights, the stakes are high in the June elections. A grand coalition united on clean governance and inclusive growth could gain traction.
This could be the MPP's toughest electoral test in years as voters' frustration reaches new heights. Recognizing the public discontent, Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene has taken steps to reach across the aisle, actively engaging the opposition DP and LNP in discussions around wealth distribution, corruption and electoral reform. While symbolic, this effort has yielded some progress, with the DP and LNP signing on to participate in Oyun-Erdene's reform initiatives.
However, it remains to be seen whether this opening the door to cooperation will be enough to convince disgruntled citizens that meaningful change is ahead. The June election shapes up as a pivotal moment for Mongolian politics and a grand coalition united on issues like clean governance and economic inclusion could gain momentum.
Major parties and politicians need compelling visions to address pressing issues and maintain relevance. If they fail, the door opens for an opposition coalition to push for radical reforms.
Last but not least, there are also technical concerns about potential voter confusion with the new mixed electoral system and expanded multi-member districts. Some fear the longer ballots with many candidate names may lead to inadvertent invalid votes and low turnout, which would benefit the ruling MPP party. Critics argue more voter education is needed, along with adjustments to voting hours and social media campaigns to boost engagement.